When and why does transition fail? A model-based identification of adoption barriers and policy vulnerabilities for transition to natural gas vehicles

Natural gas vehicles (NGV) face significant adoption barriers in Jakarta. Therefore, a successful transition requires measures from the government. Owing to the high cost of transition policies, the efficacy of these policies must be analyzed to identify the most effective policy. The implementation of transition policies, however, could dynamically influence people's perception and behavior, which then changes the landscape of adoption barriers. Furthermore, even a seemingly successful policy may fail when a certain pathway of uncertainties emerges in the future. To address these concerns, we integrated agent-based modeling, exploratory modeling, and diffusion of innovation theory into the exploratory model-based diffusion analysis approach. This approach evaluates the policy's performance, explores changes in the relative importance of different adoption barriers, and identifies policy vulnerabilities, i.e., scenarios leading to policy failures. We tested this approach on four NGV transition policies targeting three adoption barriers. We found that the importance of adoption barriers and the critical uncertainties upon the implemented policies. The social–behavioral barrier predominates under current conditions, whereas the economic factor becomes more relevant when all policies are executed. Understanding the changes in adoption barriers and policy vulnerabilities will help decision-makers to prepare additional measures that ensure a successful transition.