Utilizing Maxwell-Boltzmann Statistic to Predict Dynamic Trend Lines and Percentage of Price Changes

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

In this paper, we’ve investigated the involvement of closing volumes on closing prices as additional variables in order to achieve the better trend lines indicator. The Maxwell-Boltzmann (MB) distribution physical statistic law and its probabilistic formula were used to analyze the dynamic trend lines and deviation percentage of price changes, where prices and volumes were used as variables indeed. Many traders ignore volumes; however, there is a huge number of information in it, particularly in volume of closing prices. This MB distribution law could be manipulated to predict shares dynamic trend lines in Indonesian Stock Exchange (Idx) market. Since these analysis could be utilized to predict the dynamic trend lines on bullish or bearish market, and percentage of price changes, than; 1. We are going to have the comparison of the dynamic trend line changes (uptrend or down trend) by utilizing Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution law, and compare them to the George Lane stochastic oscillator formula. The result of the comparison percentage was 72,14 to 42,26, (72.14 % right for MB, and 42% right for George Lane stochastic oscillator). 2. On the other hand, the development of the MB probability formula, in term for predicting percentage of price changes, data’s given that minimum price changes around ± 0 to 3.59 percent (minimum deviation), and (maximum deviation) around ± 0 to 4,67 percent in Indonesian Stock Exchanges(Idx) market.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the International Conference on Administrative Science, Policy and Governance Studies (ICAS-PGS 2017) and the International Conference on Business Administration and Policy (ICBAP 2017)
PublisherAtlantis Press
ISBN (Print)978-94-6252-427-9
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2017

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