Uncertainty Analysis of Geothermal Development Projects Using Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis Method

Irwin Nathanael Hartono, Andri D. Setiawan, Akhmad Hidayatno, Marmelia P. Dewi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze uncertainty factors to provide knowledge and information regarding significant obstacles in developing geothermal energy in Indonesia. To achieve this, Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis method was adopted. The results showed that four uncertainty factors have significant influence on the achievement of geothermal development in terms of total installed capacity, total revenue, and profit. Delay due to bureaucracy, social acceptance, exploration duration, and exploration permit processing time had 68% influence on total installed capacity and profit. Meanwhile, electricity price had 44% impact on total revenue. In conclusion, focus should be given to policy interventions such as streamlining bureaucratic processes, reducing delays, and shortening processing times, to enhance installed capacity and profit growth in the future.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1537-1547
Number of pages11
JournalInternational Journal of Technology
Volume14
Issue number7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2023

Keywords

  • Exploratory modelling and analysis
  • Geothermal
  • Power plants development
  • System dynamics
  • Uncertainty analysis

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