The CMIP5 projection of extreme climate indices in Indonesia using simple quantile mapping method

I. Dewa Gede Arya Putra, M. Syamsu Rosid, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, Yesi Christy Ulina Sianturi

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

The amount of greenhouse gas emissions released during the combustion of fossil fuels directly affects the global temperature in the recent period. The assessment of future climate projections is necessary to plan mitigation and adaptation efforts in various sectors. For global warming studies, different scenarios based on the rate of radiative forcing and mitigation efforts in the future had been prepared as RCP or the Representative Concentration Pathways. In this study, two of the four scenarios will be used to project the future changes of climate parameters - the RCP8.5 scenario, where no mitigation effort is taken into account and the RCP4.5 scenario, which assumes the business-as-usual will still take place in the future. Observational data and Global Circulation Model (GCM) output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) are used to assess the future climate projection. The historical series of 29 models from GCM (Global Circulation Model) will be evaluated using daily observational data from 70 meteorological stations in Indonesia for 20 years period (1986 - 2005) based on the similarity of its spatial and temporal patterns. The output of GCMs is bias-corrected before being used in the analysis process, using quantile mapping method. Five models are chosen based on the correlation values to project the extreme climate events over the Indonesia region, using the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), or the extreme climate indices. The indices used are the total annual rainfall (Prcptot), consecutive dry days (CDD), consecutive rainy days (CWD), monthly maximum temperature values (TXx) and monthly minimum temperature values (TXn). Compared to the baseline period (1981 - 2010), most of the extreme climate events will be increased significantly in the future periods (2011 - 2040, 2041 - 2070, 2071 - 2100), except for CDD.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationInternational Energy Conference, ASTECHNOVA 2019
EditorsAwang Noor Indra Wardana, Suryo Purwono, Peng Hong Liem
PublisherAmerican Institute of Physics Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9780735419827
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 6 Apr 2020
Event7th International Energy Conference, ASTECHNOVA 2019 - Yogyakarta, Indonesia
Duration: 30 Oct 201931 Oct 2019

Publication series

NameAIP Conference Proceedings
Volume2223
ISSN (Print)0094-243X
ISSN (Electronic)1551-7616

Conference

Conference7th International Energy Conference, ASTECHNOVA 2019
CountryIndonesia
CityYogyakarta
Period30/10/1931/10/19

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