The Cairns-Blake-Dowd model to forecast Indonesian mortality rates

Y. R. Safitri, S. Mardiyati, M. Malik

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

Forecasting mortality rates has become important, especially for the pension fund and life insurance companies. If mortality rates for the next few years are known, then it will help the company to determine the amount of premiums. In this paper, the Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD) model will be used to forecast mortality rates of the Indonesian population. The least square method is used to estimate the parameters in the CBD model. Forecasted values of parameters in the CBD model can be obtained for the next three periods using Bivariate Random Walk with Drift. The final results show that forecasted Indonesian mortality rates for the next three periods have a downward trend.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 4th International Symposium on Current Progress in Mathematics and Sciences, ISCPMS 2018
EditorsTerry Mart, Djoko Triyono, Ivandini T. Anggraningrum
PublisherAmerican Institute of Physics Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9780735419155
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 4 Nov 2019
Event4th International Symposium on Current Progress in Mathematics and Sciences 2018, ISCPMS 2018 - Depok, Indonesia
Duration: 30 Oct 201831 Oct 2018

Publication series

NameAIP Conference Proceedings
Volume2168
ISSN (Print)0094-243X
ISSN (Electronic)1551-7616

Conference

Conference4th International Symposium on Current Progress in Mathematics and Sciences 2018, ISCPMS 2018
CountryIndonesia
CityDepok
Period30/10/1831/10/18

Keywords

  • Bivariate random walk with drift
  • Cairns-Blake-Dowd model
  • least square method
  • mortality rates

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