TY - JOUR
T1 - System Dynamics Modeling of Indonesia Population Projection Model
AU - Pitoyo, A. J.
AU - Ulhaq, M. D.
AU - Wahid, A.
AU - Taqiyyah, S.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.
PY - 2018/5/4
Y1 - 2018/5/4
N2 - Population projections are indispensable for the planning of future development policies due to the characteristic of the data provided is periodically such as for ten years (census population, SP) and five years (inter-census population surveys, SUPAS). System Dynamics method is suitable to use for making population projections over time since it implements the feedback loop. The model uses four stages according with the age structure used: youth (0-19 years), adult (20-39 years), middle age (40-59 years), and old (60+ years). The result of total population projection shows that the difference of absolute average with United Nations (UN) projection is 0,149% (less than BPS projection result as 0,360%) and 0.82% with PSKK. This result was able to improve BPS projection as 59%. The projection result based on the age structure shows that the differences of absolute average with UN projection are 1% (youth), 1% (adult), 5% (middle age), and 12% (old).
AB - Population projections are indispensable for the planning of future development policies due to the characteristic of the data provided is periodically such as for ten years (census population, SP) and five years (inter-census population surveys, SUPAS). System Dynamics method is suitable to use for making population projections over time since it implements the feedback loop. The model uses four stages according with the age structure used: youth (0-19 years), adult (20-39 years), middle age (40-59 years), and old (60+ years). The result of total population projection shows that the difference of absolute average with United Nations (UN) projection is 0,149% (less than BPS projection result as 0,360%) and 0.82% with PSKK. This result was able to improve BPS projection as 59%. The projection result based on the age structure shows that the differences of absolute average with UN projection are 1% (youth), 1% (adult), 5% (middle age), and 12% (old).
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85047788314&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1088/1755-1315/145/1/012117
DO - 10.1088/1755-1315/145/1/012117
M3 - Conference article
AN - SCOPUS:85047788314
SN - 1755-1307
VL - 145
JO - IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
JF - IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
IS - 1
M1 - 012117
T2 - 1st UPI International Geography Seminar 2017, IGEOS 2017
Y2 - 8 August 2017 through 8 August 2017
ER -