TY - JOUR
T1 - Spatial modeling for prediction agricultural land-use change in Jampang Kulon, Sukabumi Regency
AU - Difanty, A.
AU - Supriatna, S.
N1 - Funding Information:
Thanks to DRPM of Universitas Indonesia, which has supported and funded this research grant PUTI 2020.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
PY - 2021/1/8
Y1 - 2021/1/8
N2 - Indonesia is a developing country with high population growth. In terms of urbanization, a large amount of agricultural land has been transformed into an urban area that can directly lead to LULC (land use-land cover) changes. Understanding and accessing LULC changes mainly used simulation models like the Cellular Automata and Markov Chain. This model effectively combines the advantages of long-term predictions and can simulate land-use growth. This study aims to analyze and predict the future scenarios of LULC (2010-2031) in the Jampang Kulon Sub District using Cellular Automata and Markov Chain model by considering the physical and socio-economic drivers of LULC dynamics. The study revealed that agricultural land decreased by 17% from 2020 to 2031. Meanwhile, the neighborhood area will be increased by 41% from 2020 to 2031. The growth of neighborhood areas with a crowded pattern is in the northern and center parts of the Jampang Kulon Sub District. The CA-Markov model used in predicting LULC produced a kappa value of 0,87. This study can provide suggestions and a basis for urban development planning in Jampang Kulon Sub District Sukabumi Regency.
AB - Indonesia is a developing country with high population growth. In terms of urbanization, a large amount of agricultural land has been transformed into an urban area that can directly lead to LULC (land use-land cover) changes. Understanding and accessing LULC changes mainly used simulation models like the Cellular Automata and Markov Chain. This model effectively combines the advantages of long-term predictions and can simulate land-use growth. This study aims to analyze and predict the future scenarios of LULC (2010-2031) in the Jampang Kulon Sub District using Cellular Automata and Markov Chain model by considering the physical and socio-economic drivers of LULC dynamics. The study revealed that agricultural land decreased by 17% from 2020 to 2031. Meanwhile, the neighborhood area will be increased by 41% from 2020 to 2031. The growth of neighborhood areas with a crowded pattern is in the northern and center parts of the Jampang Kulon Sub District. The CA-Markov model used in predicting LULC produced a kappa value of 0,87. This study can provide suggestions and a basis for urban development planning in Jampang Kulon Sub District Sukabumi Regency.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85100731284&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1088/1755-1315/623/1/012084
DO - 10.1088/1755-1315/623/1/012084
M3 - Conference article
AN - SCOPUS:85100731284
SN - 1755-1307
VL - 623
JO - IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
JF - IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
IS - 1
M1 - 012084
T2 - 2nd International Conference on Environment, Sustainability Issues, and Community Development, INCRID 2020
Y2 - 21 October 2020
ER -
