Spatial modeling for prediction agricultural land-use change in Jampang Kulon, Sukabumi Regency

A. Difanty, S. Supriatna

Research output: Contribution to journalConference articlepeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)


Indonesia is a developing country with high population growth. In terms of urbanization, a large amount of agricultural land has been transformed into an urban area that can directly lead to LULC (land use-land cover) changes. Understanding and accessing LULC changes mainly used simulation models like the Cellular Automata and Markov Chain. This model effectively combines the advantages of long-term predictions and can simulate land-use growth. This study aims to analyze and predict the future scenarios of LULC (2010-2031) in the Jampang Kulon Sub District using Cellular Automata and Markov Chain model by considering the physical and socio-economic drivers of LULC dynamics. The study revealed that agricultural land decreased by 17% from 2020 to 2031. Meanwhile, the neighborhood area will be increased by 41% from 2020 to 2031. The growth of neighborhood areas with a crowded pattern is in the northern and center parts of the Jampang Kulon Sub District. The CA-Markov model used in predicting LULC produced a kappa value of 0,87. This study can provide suggestions and a basis for urban development planning in Jampang Kulon Sub District Sukabumi Regency.

Original languageEnglish
Article number012084
JournalIOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 8 Jan 2021
Event2nd International Conference on Environment, Sustainability Issues, and Community Development, INCRID 2020 - Semarang, Virtual, Indonesia
Duration: 21 Oct 2020 → …


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