Spatial model of land use/land cover change dynamics and projection of Cisadane Watershed

One of the major problems in watershed management is to balance the ecological function and fulfillment of human needs in a limited area. Rapid land-use changes often occurred as a result of human activities. Regular monitoring of land-use change dynamics is needed to help the government in making a decision within the area. Cisadane watershed is one of 15 priority watersheds in West Java Province, which categorized as very critical. This study aims to: 1) analyze land use/land cover (LULC) change dynamics and patterns in Cisadane watershed from year 2003, 2009, 2013, and 2018, 2) develop LULC projection for year 2033 based on historical patterns using Markov chain algorithm, and 3) analyze LULC change pattern and projection towards the spatial planning. The study reveals that the most significant changes during the last 15 years is the increase in built-up areas (47%). On the other hand, forest and paddy field classes are experiencing a decrease of 7% and 31%, respectively. LULC projection under business as usual (BAU) condition resulted in the continuous increase of built-up areas up to 36% in the year 2033, which most of the changes come from the conversion of paddy field and dryland farming. LULC map of year 2018 and regency's spatial planning was overlaid to confront the consistency within both maps. The overlaid shows inconsistency between current LULC and land allocation in spatial planning. The inconsistency mostly occurred in the area allocated as plantation (86%). The built-up area has the largest allocated areas in Cisadane watershed, while it is only 51% of the areas that had been utilized as a built-up area. The result of this study indicates the need to strengthen land allocation policy within the watershed, in particular, to control the development of the built-up area.