Spatial dynamics model of built-up area growth and mean sea level rise projection. Case study: Bandar Lampung city, Indonesia

The city of Bandar Lampung has a significant population growth, resulting in continuous expansion of built-up areas. This situation parallels the threat of mean sea level rise along the coast of Bandar Lampung. This study aims to project the development of built-up areas and the rise in sea level. The projection of built-up area growth is conducted through dynamic spatial modeling form data 2010-2020, while mean sea level rise forecasting is done using long short-term memory (LSTM) form data 2002-2022 to project the years 2024, 2029, 2035, 2041, 2048, and 2059. The research findings indicate that by the year 2059, the projected population growth is 4114190 people. Consequently, 90% (16543.44 hectares) of the total area will be converted into a built-up area. Bandar Lampung will face a mean sea level rise of 107 cm in 2059, which will have a significant impact, submerging a coastal area of 116.13 hectares out of the total area of Bandar Lampung City.