Spatial Dynamics Model for Land Carrying Capacity Prediction in Tangerang Selatan City

Tangerang Selatan is a city with the highest economic and population growth in Banten Province which makes the built-up land have high and rapid growth so that it can reduce the land carrying capacity of the city. This causes the predictions on the land carrying capacity need to be done so that the status of land carrying capacity can be detected before declining. The aim of this study is to produce a spatial dynamics model of land carrying capacity in Tangerang Selatan City. This study uses population data of 2008-2018, Landsat 5 TM (2008) images, and Landsat 8 OLI images (2013 and 2018). The land carrying capacity is predicted from 2008-2100 using the system dynamics model method based on the relationship between land requirements based on population growth and land availability based on built-up land, which then converted to spatial to see the spatial distribution with spatial dynamics model method. Research shows that in 2026 the land carrying capacity in Tangerang Selatan City has reached 30% and in 2056 the land carrying capacity has been exhausted.