Simulasi Model Estimasi Biaya Kontingensi Berbasis Risiko Pada Proyek Bangunan Industri dengan Kontrak Rancang Bangun

Design build is one method of project completion that accepts many risks due to the integration of various activities start from design activities until build activities. Within 5 years, 63% from 72 industrial projects with design build contract is experiencing cost overrun. One of the risk management strategies due to uncertainty is to include a contingency cost amount in the estimated cost. This study aims to make model calculation of risk based contingency costs from each activity in 7 business process contractor design build, start from design, procurement, finance, controlling, build, safety and contract controlling. The method used in this research is monte carlo simulation. The result of this research is a contingency cost percentage model of 4.46% & 4.91% with 95% confidence level. Which has 7 business processes, 145 activities, 31 outputs and 10 highest risk events that have a significant effect on project cost performance.