Scenario Planning using System Dynamics for Reducing Uncertainty on Managing Employee Turnover

In order to maintain the competitiveness of an organization in the global competition era, the presence of qualified human resources has become one of the key factors. Unlike quality of a product, qualified human resources have the capacity and talents that are not easy to replicate. Therefore, researchers and practitioners have been looking for the best strategy to manage turnover in an organization. However, the problem with turnover has become more dynamic, causing for uncertainties in the impact of the strategy implemented. This research will show how 'scenario planning' is used in a system dynamics model to minimize the level of uncertainties. The scenarios generated are not limited to the changes in assumptions, but also include alternatives of trends that may happen in the future (plausible scenario). This paper focuses on discussing the process of generating and testing the plausible scenarios to the model. The implication of the scenarios is also compared to the initial output of the model.