Prognostic scoring system to predict mortality after surgery in resectable colorectal cancer

Background: Colorectal cancer remains as the major problem worldwide. Numerous studies have investigated factors associated with mortality and recurrence rates in colorectal cancer. To facilitate the everyday use of mortality predictors, they should be incorporated into a prognostic scoring system. This study aimed to identify factors affecting mortality in resectable colorectal cancer patients after surgery and to develop a prognostic scoring system capable of predicting mortality in these patients. Methods: This retrospective cohort study involved colorectal cancer patients at Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Indonesia, from January 2016 – April 2020 diagnosed with resectable colorectal cancer. Data were collected from medical records, operation reports, histopathology reports, and laboratory test results. Mortality was assessed three years after curative surgery. Result: A total of 214 resectable colorectal cancer patients were included in the study. Tumor size ≥ 5 cm, T3/T4 staging, absence of adjuvant chemotherapy, unachieved free circumferential margin, and CEA levels > 11.4 ng/mL were significantly associated with increased three-year mortality. The constructed three-year mortality prognostic scoring system was able to predict outcomes with a sensitivity of 91.3% and a specificity of 67.6%. Conclusion: The prognostic scoring system, consisting of five variables, is significantly capable of predicting three-year mortality rates with high sensitivity.