TY - JOUR
T1 - Prognostic Scoring System for Mortality of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients in Resource-Limited Settings
T2 - A Multicenter Study from COVID-19 Referral Hospitals
AU - Saldi, Siti Rizny F.
AU - Safitri, Eka Dian
AU - Setiati, Siti
AU - Ranakusuma, Respati W.
AU - Marsigit, Jessica
AU - Azwar, Muhammad K.
AU - Astuti, Puji
AU - Sari, Cut Yulia Indah
AU - Istanti, Rahmi
AU - Yulianti, Mira
AU - Rumende, Cleopas Martin
AU - Yunihastuti, Evy
AU - Susilo, Adityo
AU - Harimurti, Kuntjoro
AU - Liastuti, Lies Dina
AU - Trimartani, Trimartani
AU - Restuti, Ratna Dwi
AU - Syam, Ari Fahrial
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, Indonesian Society of Internal Medicine. All rights reserved.
PY - 2021/10/1
Y1 - 2021/10/1
N2 - BACKGROUND: Many studies identified the risk factors and prognostic factors related to in-hospital COVID-19 mortality using sophisticated laboratory tests. Cost and the availability of supporting blood tests may be problematic in resource-limited settings. This multicenter cohort study was conducted to assess the factors associated with mortality of COVID-19 patients aged 18 years and older, based on history taking, physical examination, and simple blood tests to be used in resource-limited settings. METHODS: The study was conducted between July 2020 and January 2021 in five COVID-19 referral hospitals in Indonesia. Among 1048 confirmed cases of COVID-19, 160 (15%) died during hospitalization. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis showed eight predictors of in-hospital mortality, namely increased age, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, fatigue, dyspnea, altered mental status, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) ≥ 5.8, and severe-critical condition. This scoring system had an Area-under-the-curve (AUC) of 84.7%. With cut-off score of 6, the sensitivity was 76.3% and the specificity was 78.2%. CONCLUSION: The result of this practical prognostic scoring system may be a guide to decision making of physicians and help in the education of family members related to the possible outcome.
AB - BACKGROUND: Many studies identified the risk factors and prognostic factors related to in-hospital COVID-19 mortality using sophisticated laboratory tests. Cost and the availability of supporting blood tests may be problematic in resource-limited settings. This multicenter cohort study was conducted to assess the factors associated with mortality of COVID-19 patients aged 18 years and older, based on history taking, physical examination, and simple blood tests to be used in resource-limited settings. METHODS: The study was conducted between July 2020 and January 2021 in five COVID-19 referral hospitals in Indonesia. Among 1048 confirmed cases of COVID-19, 160 (15%) died during hospitalization. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis showed eight predictors of in-hospital mortality, namely increased age, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, fatigue, dyspnea, altered mental status, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) ≥ 5.8, and severe-critical condition. This scoring system had an Area-under-the-curve (AUC) of 84.7%. With cut-off score of 6, the sensitivity was 76.3% and the specificity was 78.2%. CONCLUSION: The result of this practical prognostic scoring system may be a guide to decision making of physicians and help in the education of family members related to the possible outcome.
KW - COVID-19
KW - mortality
KW - predictive score
KW - prognostic
KW - resource-limited settings
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85123568238&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - Article
C2 - 35027487
AN - SCOPUS:85123568238
SN - 0125-9326
VL - 53
SP - 407
EP - 415
JO - Acta medica Indonesiana
JF - Acta medica Indonesiana
IS - 4
ER -