Probabilistic duration calculation based on earned schedule approach

Project duration prediction is an important part on project management. Therefore, a method to predict project duration suitably is required to accommodate uncertainty that may occur in the future. In the other hand, a development of Earned Value Management, which started with a traditional earned value (EV) based on cost, came into Earned Schedule (ES) method, which especially designed to predict project duration based on schedule. The problem is how to change deterministic duration prediction using ES method into a probabilistic duration prediction. This paper describes a research conducted on probabilistic project duration prediction with a developed ES method to accommodate uncertainty that usually occur in a developing country such like Indonesia. The research is conduct in Jakarta as a capital city of Indonesia. S-curve Data collects from several ongoing projects to be calculated each on ES method backward for every its periodical time. Furthermore, a confidential interval is used to determine the optimistic and pessimistic duration. The result shows that population of project’s duration prediction with ES method is a part of project realization duration population, and its probabilistic duration could be obtained by backward calculation and confidence interval level.