Primary Energy Demand Forecasting for Indonesia Railway using Software LEAP

Development of Indonesia’s Railway according to National Railway Vision 2030 (RIPNAS 2030), stipulated railway electrification expected to increase about 90% for the whole intercity railway network, however 89.2% railway network still use diesel train. This study would see the forecasting primary energy demand up to 2050 with two business-asusual (BaU) scenarios, without any introducing the implementation of electrification plan, with latest data assumption year range 2019-2015. LEAP software was used to simulate or modelling Business as Usual in this study to forecast the primary energy demand of railways with coverage throughout Indonesia. The 1 stBaU with Unit Grow scenario shows total energy demands of diesel, diesel-electric and electric trains of 0.268 million TOE in 2020, 0.602 million TOE by 2030 and 15.467 million TOE by 2050. Meanwhile The 2nd BaU Simulation results showed the total energy demand of diesel and electric trains amounted to 0.264 million TOE in 2020, then 0.411 million TOE in 2030 and continue growing to 1.201 million TOE by 2050. The result of energy demand shown high percentage for BaU with Unit GrowScenario because of assumption variable use with fast 12,1% growth of Electric Train Unit. Hence in 2050 with BaU with Unit Grow Scenario gives 95% of Indonesia Railway dominated by Electric Train in energy demand.