TY - JOUR
T1 - Predictive scoring systems for in-hospital mortality due to acutely decompensated liver cirrhosis in Indonesia
AU - Nababan, Saut Horas H.
AU - Mansjoer, Arif
AU - Fauzi, Achmad
AU - Gani, Rino A.
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors express thanks to Siti Nurohma for assisting with data collection and analysis.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s).
PY - 2021/12
Y1 - 2021/12
N2 - Background: Acutely decompensated liver cirrhosis is associated with high medical costs and negatively affects productivity and quality of life. Data on factors associated with in-hospital mortality due to acutely decompensated liver cirrhosis in Indonesia are scarce. This study aims to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality and develop predictive scoring systems for clinical application in acutely decompensated liver cirrhosis patients. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study using a hospital database of acutely decompensated liver cirrhosis data at Cipto Mangunkusumo National General Hospital, Jakarta (2016–2019). Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the predictors of in-hospital mortality. Two scoring systems were developed based on the identified predictors. Results: A total of 241 patients were analysed; patients were predominantly male (74.3%), had hepatitis B (38.6%), and had Child–Pugh class B or C cirrhosis (40% and 38%, respectively). Gastrointestinal bleeding was observed in 171 patients (70.9%), and 29 patients (12.03%) died during hospitalization. The independent predictors of in-hospital mortality were age (adjusted OR: 1.09 [1.03–1.14]; p = 0.001), bacterial infection (adjusted OR: 6.25 [2.31–16.92]; p < 0.001), total bilirubin level (adjusted OR: 3.01 [1.85–4.89]; p < 0.001) and creatinine level (adjusted OR: 2.70 [1.20–6.05]; p = 0.016). The logistic and additive scoring systems, which were developed based on the identified predictors, had AUROC values of 0.899 and 0.868, respectively. Conclusion: The in-hospital mortality rate of acutely decompensated liver cirrhosis in Indonesia is high. We have developed two predictive scoring systems for in-hospital mortality in acutely decompensated liver cirrhosis patients.
AB - Background: Acutely decompensated liver cirrhosis is associated with high medical costs and negatively affects productivity and quality of life. Data on factors associated with in-hospital mortality due to acutely decompensated liver cirrhosis in Indonesia are scarce. This study aims to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality and develop predictive scoring systems for clinical application in acutely decompensated liver cirrhosis patients. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study using a hospital database of acutely decompensated liver cirrhosis data at Cipto Mangunkusumo National General Hospital, Jakarta (2016–2019). Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the predictors of in-hospital mortality. Two scoring systems were developed based on the identified predictors. Results: A total of 241 patients were analysed; patients were predominantly male (74.3%), had hepatitis B (38.6%), and had Child–Pugh class B or C cirrhosis (40% and 38%, respectively). Gastrointestinal bleeding was observed in 171 patients (70.9%), and 29 patients (12.03%) died during hospitalization. The independent predictors of in-hospital mortality were age (adjusted OR: 1.09 [1.03–1.14]; p = 0.001), bacterial infection (adjusted OR: 6.25 [2.31–16.92]; p < 0.001), total bilirubin level (adjusted OR: 3.01 [1.85–4.89]; p < 0.001) and creatinine level (adjusted OR: 2.70 [1.20–6.05]; p = 0.016). The logistic and additive scoring systems, which were developed based on the identified predictors, had AUROC values of 0.899 and 0.868, respectively. Conclusion: The in-hospital mortality rate of acutely decompensated liver cirrhosis in Indonesia is high. We have developed two predictive scoring systems for in-hospital mortality in acutely decompensated liver cirrhosis patients.
KW - Acute decompensation
KW - In-hospital mortality
KW - Liver cirrhosis
KW - Prognosis
KW - Scoring system
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85117564939&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1186/s12876-021-01972-6
DO - 10.1186/s12876-021-01972-6
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85117564939
SN - 1471-230X
VL - 21
JO - BMC Gastroenterology
JF - BMC Gastroenterology
IS - 1
M1 - 392
ER -