TY - GEN
T1 - Predictive Analytics Comparison of Achieving Herd Immunity from COVID-19 in Indonesia and India Based on Fully Vaccinated People
AU - Budiyanto, Alex
AU - Anggraini, Melviana
AU - Hidayanto, Achmad Nizar
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 IEEE.
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - Indonesia and India are two exciting countries to compare in handling this COVID-19 pandemic. There have been many studies on predictive analytics related to the COVID-19 pandemic, either in cases, deaths, or vaccinations. However, we have not found any studies that predict the achievement of herd immunity based on vaccination rates combined with several herd immunity theories, especially those comparing Indonesia and India. This study will compare the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia and India, especially regarding the two countries' national vaccination programs. Therefore, this research focuses on determining which countries are quicker to achieve herd immunity and when that herd immunity can be obtained using exponential smoothing predictive analytics. Our result shows that India would achieve herd immunity faster than Indonesia. It is predicted that India will reach complete vaccination for 85% of its population by mid-April 2022, while Indonesia will achieve it at the end of June 2022. This result is quite surprising because India has a population five times larger than Indonesia. Subsequent research is needed to determine whether the predictions made in this study have a pretty good level of accuracy or vice versa. For example, which herds immunity threshold is correct from the various herd immunity theories proposed.
AB - Indonesia and India are two exciting countries to compare in handling this COVID-19 pandemic. There have been many studies on predictive analytics related to the COVID-19 pandemic, either in cases, deaths, or vaccinations. However, we have not found any studies that predict the achievement of herd immunity based on vaccination rates combined with several herd immunity theories, especially those comparing Indonesia and India. This study will compare the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia and India, especially regarding the two countries' national vaccination programs. Therefore, this research focuses on determining which countries are quicker to achieve herd immunity and when that herd immunity can be obtained using exponential smoothing predictive analytics. Our result shows that India would achieve herd immunity faster than Indonesia. It is predicted that India will reach complete vaccination for 85% of its population by mid-April 2022, while Indonesia will achieve it at the end of June 2022. This result is quite surprising because India has a population five times larger than Indonesia. Subsequent research is needed to determine whether the predictions made in this study have a pretty good level of accuracy or vice versa. For example, which herds immunity threshold is correct from the various herd immunity theories proposed.
KW - COVID-19
KW - Exponential smoothing
KW - Forecasting
KW - Herd immunity
KW - Predictive analytics
KW - Vaccination
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85128189739&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1109/ISMODE53584.2022.9742823
DO - 10.1109/ISMODE53584.2022.9742823
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85128189739
T3 - 2021 International Seminar on Machine Learning, Optimization, and Data Science, ISMODE 2021
SP - 289
EP - 294
BT - 2021 International Seminar on Machine Learning, Optimization, and Data Science, ISMODE 2021
PB - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
T2 - 2021 International Seminar on Machine Learning, Optimization, and Data Science, ISMODE 2021
Y2 - 29 January 2022
ER -
