Prediction of electricity load growth of tangerang city using SIMPLE-E

Andi Aulia Putra, N. Nayusrizal, Indira Untari, Gunawan Wibisono, Chairul Hudaya

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

The electricity load growth should be planned appropriately to meet energy demand in a certain area. Electricity consumption growth is generally proportional with the economic and population growth. Using historical data on Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) and population growth, the electricity load growth in the near future can be statistically predicted. The relationship between economic and population growth trend and total customers as well as the demands of contract electricity energy growth trend could be connected by the linear regression method to predict electricity energy consumptions. Through a Simple Econometric Simulation System (SIMPLE-E) program run in Microsoft Excel application, linear regression trend can be calculated. The purpose of study is to predict the growth of electricity consumption in Tangerang City-Indonesia, for the next ten consecutive years (2019-2028). Customer data that will be analyzed consist of five segments, which are Residential (R), Commercial (B), Industry (I), Public (P), and Social (S). Those can be combined with Gross Regional Domestic Product and human population using Multiples Linear Regression in SIMPLE-E. The correlation between dependent variables (total customers and contract of power) and independent variables (population and GRDP) will be computed in SIMPLE-E through rate value of correlation R, Adjusted R, and Durbin Watson test. The Actual trend data of total customer, contract power from 2012 to 2018, is compared to model equation from linear regression. The calculation of error use Root Mean Square Percentage Error and Mean Percentage Error, shows that the total error is less than 5%, meaning the simulation is scientifically accepted. This study shows that the average growth of electricity consumption in Tangerang city from 2019 to 2028 is 5.63%. It means that every 1% growth of economy in Tangerang will increase electricity load consumption for 0.94%.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2nd IEEE International Conference on Innovative Research and Development, ICIRD 2019
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9781728128252
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2019
Event2nd IEEE International Conference on Innovative Research and Development, ICIRD 2019 - Depok, Indonesia
Duration: 28 Jun 201930 Jun 2019

Publication series

Name2nd IEEE International Conference on Innovative Research and Development, ICIRD 2019

Conference

Conference2nd IEEE International Conference on Innovative Research and Development, ICIRD 2019
Country/TerritoryIndonesia
CityDepok
Period28/06/1930/06/19

Keywords

  • Economic growth
  • Linear regression
  • Load prediction
  • SIMPLE-E
  • Tangerang City

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