TY - JOUR
T1 - Prediction Models for HIV Infection in Infants
T2 - Analysis of Scoring Systems on Maternal, Infants, and Mode of Delivery Risk Factors
AU - Latupeirissa, Debbie
AU - Akib, Arwin A.P.
AU - Hadinegoro, Sri Rezeki S.
AU - Ibrahim, Fera
AU - Aminullah, Asril
AU - Bardosono, Saptawati
AU - Ismoedijanto,
AU - Utomo, Budi
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at [email protected].
PY - 2024
Y1 - 2024
N2 - BACKGROUND: Diagnosis for HIV in infants is hard to determine, particularly in limited-resource areas. A delay in the diagnosis of HIV-infected infants will lead to high morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this project is to construct a model of an HIV-positive infant and develop a useful and practical scoring system to estimate the likelihood of mother-to-child transmission that can be applied in the field. METHODS: A cross-sectional study on 100 subjects through medical records of infants born to HIV-infected mothers was conducted at four hospitals and one community health center. Several models of risk prediction scores of HIV-infected infants were then made. Furthermore, the performed validation was performed on 20 subjects of infants born to mothers with HIV in three hospitals by comparing the scoring system and the result of the PCR RNA examination performed at the age of 6 weeks old. RESULTS: The risk of HIV-infected infants was higher in mothers who did not receive ARV through PMTCT programs (OR 33.6; 95% CI 4.0 to 282.2), pulmonary TB infection (OR 5.1; IK95% 1.6 to 16.0) and vaginal delivery (OR 9.2; IK95 2.2 to 38.0%). Two models can predict the occurrence of infected HIV infants effectively. Model 1 consists of maternal age, maternal ARVs, lung TB infection, gestational age, mode of delivery, and sex of the infants with sensitivity and specificity of 78.9% and 70.8% (AUC=0.817 [95% CI 0.709 to 0.926]) and likelihood ratio score of 4. Model 2 consists of ARVs to the mother, pulmonary TB infection, and mode of delivery with sensitivity and specificity of 73.7% and 86.1%; AUC value of 0.812 (95% CI 0.687 to 0.938) and likelihood ratio of 5. External Validation gave similar results to the Model 2 scoring system with PCR RNA. CONCLUSION: The prediction score of HIV-infected infants in Model 2 can be used in newborns of HIV-positive mothers as an effective and practical risk screening tool for HIV-infected infants before the gold standard examination by PCR.
AB - BACKGROUND: Diagnosis for HIV in infants is hard to determine, particularly in limited-resource areas. A delay in the diagnosis of HIV-infected infants will lead to high morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this project is to construct a model of an HIV-positive infant and develop a useful and practical scoring system to estimate the likelihood of mother-to-child transmission that can be applied in the field. METHODS: A cross-sectional study on 100 subjects through medical records of infants born to HIV-infected mothers was conducted at four hospitals and one community health center. Several models of risk prediction scores of HIV-infected infants were then made. Furthermore, the performed validation was performed on 20 subjects of infants born to mothers with HIV in three hospitals by comparing the scoring system and the result of the PCR RNA examination performed at the age of 6 weeks old. RESULTS: The risk of HIV-infected infants was higher in mothers who did not receive ARV through PMTCT programs (OR 33.6; 95% CI 4.0 to 282.2), pulmonary TB infection (OR 5.1; IK95% 1.6 to 16.0) and vaginal delivery (OR 9.2; IK95 2.2 to 38.0%). Two models can predict the occurrence of infected HIV infants effectively. Model 1 consists of maternal age, maternal ARVs, lung TB infection, gestational age, mode of delivery, and sex of the infants with sensitivity and specificity of 78.9% and 70.8% (AUC=0.817 [95% CI 0.709 to 0.926]) and likelihood ratio score of 4. Model 2 consists of ARVs to the mother, pulmonary TB infection, and mode of delivery with sensitivity and specificity of 73.7% and 86.1%; AUC value of 0.812 (95% CI 0.687 to 0.938) and likelihood ratio of 5. External Validation gave similar results to the Model 2 scoring system with PCR RNA. CONCLUSION: The prediction score of HIV-infected infants in Model 2 can be used in newborns of HIV-positive mothers as an effective and practical risk screening tool for HIV-infected infants before the gold standard examination by PCR.
KW - Drugs
KW - infected HIV infant
KW - infectious pulmonary tuberculosis
KW - mode of delivery
KW - prediction model.
KW - scoring models
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85210199867&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.2174/011570162X304984240822052915
DO - 10.2174/011570162X304984240822052915
M3 - Article
C2 - 39219124
AN - SCOPUS:85210199867
SN - 1570-162X
VL - 22
SP - 329
EP - 335
JO - Current HIV research
JF - Current HIV research
IS - 5
ER -