@article{082b27219a344435b8cacb694ca30f86,
title = "Predicting transmission of pulmonary tuberculosis in Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta Province, Indonesia",
abstract = "This study aims to explain the current dispersion of tuberculosis (TB) and provide evidence that could help predicting its future transmission in Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta (DIY) Province, Java Island, Indonesia. One hundred thirty-two adult (>14 years old) individuals, with TB diagnosed by health professionals using the Directly Observed Treatment, Short Course strategy, were identified Their residential addresses and geographical patterns of movement were investigated by global positioning systems and descriptive spatial analysis using standard deviation ellipse analysis and kernel estimation. The dispersion of TB cases was studied by ellipse regression, which showed a pattern extending in a direction oriented from north-west to south-east centred on Kasihan District, Bantul Regency, DIY Province, located near Yogyakarta City. Levels of TB risk in the study area varied from non-existent to high as calculated by kernel estimation. We conclude that suburban communities, followed by densely populated residential areas, enabled by socio-economic factors, are more likely to see increased TB transmission in the future.",
author = "Al Asyary and Aries Prasetyo and Tris Eryando and Yodi Mahendradhata",
note = "Funding Information: About 170 years ago, the first spatial analysis was put into Conflict of interest: the authors declare no potential conflict of interest. practice in London by John Snow (the father of epidemiology) Funding: this study was sponsored by the University of Indonesia and when he applied his then new idea to demonstrate the distribution supported by CSR ANTAM Co.Ltd. Scholarship.Non-commercial of communicable incidents, in this case cholera. Although Snow was able to end the cholera epidemic by convincing the authorities Ethicalstatement:informedconsentfromtherespondentwasobtainedin to close the now famous Broad Street water pump, the next steps writtenform.EthicapprovalofthestudywasobtainedfromtheExpert are not always revealed in epidemiological research. As with CommissiononResearchandResearchEthicsofPublicHealthFaculty, cholera, eliminating tuberculosis (TB) transmission in a population UniversityofIndonesia,Number:87/H2.F10/PPM.00.02/2014. is the key and that can be effectuated by treatment before the disease spreads further. Pulmonary TB is completely curable through short-course chemotherapy, commonly with isoniazid and rifampicin, delivered through a system of checks and balances referred to as Directly Observed Treatment Short Course (DOTS), a strategy endorsed by the World Health Organization (WHO). Spatial methods have been demonstrated to contribute to the description and overview of prevalence as well as incidence of TB (Feske et al., 2011; Terlikbayeva et al., 2012). Buffer analysis can be used to explain how far the areal diameter of an area character-ized by TB infections has an impact (Zendejas-Martinez et al., 2008; Jacob et al., 2010), while an analysis of spatiotemporal trans-mission and socio-climatic factors related to TB provide determi- nants that might help in predicting the likelihood of TB presence (Alene et al., 2017). However, neither of these methods can explain what happens next, neither measurement of its dispersal potential nor its assumed future transmission. However, standard deviation (SD), a statistic parameter for the mean of data dispersion, can be used to evaluate frequency histograms that would show whether the distribution is skewed in any way, whereas the mean of a SD ellipse (SDE) can be generalized to reveal central tendencies of aggregation, while the dimension of dispersion indicates the trend of distribution in spatial analysis (Lai et al., 2009). Even though the nature of the contagion (e.g., the cholera bacterium) was unknown at the time of John Snow, the source of contamination was discovered through mapping the spatial distribution of cholera cases (Panaeth, 2004). This method is currently illustrated as dispersion and prediction analysis. Although TB is not transmitted by water like cholera, the same diffusion pattern applies as it is affected by a single factor (Raviglione et al., 1995). Some studies reflect the importance of providing real-world perception according to prior TB transmission geographically (Lai et al., 2009; Feske et al., 2011; Lin et al., 2011). It is most essential to find evidence of what happens with regard to dispersion of TB compared to the prior distribution and transmission potential (Khan, 1986). This spatial study attempts to describe how progress of TB transmission might occur, particularly in the Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta (DIY) Province of Indonesia, a low-to middle-income country. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} A. Asyary et al.",
year = "2019",
month = may,
day = "14",
doi = "10.4081/gh.2019.673",
language = "English",
volume = "14",
journal = "Geospatial health",
issn = "1827-1987",
publisher = "University of Naples Federico II",
number = "1",
}
