Predicting the suitable cultivation areas of breadfruit crops Artocarpus altilis (Moraceae) under future climate scenarios in Central Java, Indonesia

Artocarpus altilis, commonly known as breadfruit, is a potential crop adapted to a wide variety of climates and widely spread, including in Indonesia. However, information on how this species can adapt to climate change, in particular in Central Java, is still limited. In Indonesia, Central Java is the center for cultivation areas for many crop species to support the 145 million people living on Java Island. One of the potential crops being developed in Central Java is breadfruit. To assess the suitable cultivation areas for breadfruit, species distribution modeling (SDM) was used to predict the current and future (2050–2070) distribution of breadfruit. Two climate change scenarios, including optimistic RCP2.6 and pessimistic RCP8.5 models, were considered to represent future climate change impacts. Based on the results for both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, the breadfruit’s suitable cultivation areas will expand eastward. Implementing a mitigation climate change scenario and limiting the temperature increase to only 1°C under RCP2.6 will provide 270.967 km² more of suitable cultivation areas for breadfruit in 2050 and 133.296 km² in 2070. To conclude, this study provides important information on the status and potential cultivation areas for breadfruit, mainly in the Southeast Asia region. The identification of suitable areas will guide land conservation for breadfruit to support food security in this region.