Perubahan Demografi dan Kesinambungan Keuangan BPJS Kesehatan

This study aims at analyzing the financial sustainability of Health Care and Social Security Agency’s Health Insurance (BPJS Kesehatan) due to the increasing of ageing population by comparing the revenue and expenditure of BPJS Kesehatan up to 2100. This research applies a quantitative analysis in calculating the gap between the BPJS Kesehatan’s potential revenue and expenditure by considering a morbidity rate, health care cost per age group, and data of projected population. Demographic changes has also shifted the health expenditure pattern in which the biggest health expenditure is now dominated by the 45-54 years old group, while in the long term the group of 75 years old will dominate the health expenditure. Our simulation found that (a) BPJS Kesehatan will face a deficit even though the amount of participants’ contribution is increased and the proportion of formal sector increases; (b) the most potential way to improve the sustainability of BPJS Kesehatan in responding to demographic changes is the implementation of preventive measures to reduce morbidity rate.