Several research effort in recent years has shown its significant interest in the development of security measure in the routing of Mobile Ad-hoc Network (MANET). Ad-hoc On-demand Distance Vector (AODV) routing protocol has been one of the basic protocol that is modified to cope with security demands. This paper present an analytical model to evaluate the performance of AODV variant that is developed to be secure with malicious node detection and trust mechanism. Since the performance of MANET is tightly depends on the underlying topology of the nodes, route establishment may fail due to node's movement or malicious activity. The analytical model aims to provide the basic performance insight in the form of the route establishment probability of the MANET with and without malicious nodes. The model is important for MANET designer to optimize the connectivity for all nodes.