Optimal control and stability analysis of monkeypox transmission dynamics with the impact of contaminated surfaces

Abdullah Hasan Hassan, Dipo Aldila, Muhamad Hifzhudin Noor Aziz

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the transmission dynamics of monkeypox, considering contaminated surfaces using a deterministic mathematical model. The study begins by calculating the basic reproduction number and the stability properties of equilibrium states, specifically focusing on the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. Our analytical investigation reveals the occurrence of a forward bifurcation when the basic reproduction number equals unity, indicating a critical threshold for disease spread. The non-existence of backward bifurcation indicates that the basic reproduction number is the single endemic indicator in our model. To further understand the dynamics and control strategies, sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify influential parameters. Based on these findings, the model is reconstructed as an optimal control problem, allowing for the formulation of effective control strategies. Numerical simulations are then performed to assess the impact of these control measures on the spread of monkeypox. The study contributes to the field by providing insights into the optimal control and stability analysis of monkeypox transmission dynamics. The results emphasize the significance of contaminated surfaces in disease transmission and highlight the importance of implementing targeted control measures to contain and prevent outbreaks. The findings of this research can aid in the development of evidence-based strategies for mitigating the impact of monkeypox and other similar infectious diseases.

Original languageEnglish
Article number1372579
JournalFrontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics
Volume10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2024

Keywords

  • contaminated surfaces
  • mathematical model
  • monkeypox
  • optimal control
  • stability analysis

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