Ophthalmic artery Doppler for pre-eclampsia prediction at the first trimester: a Bayesian survival-time model

Raden Aditya Kusuma, Detty Siti Nurdiati, Adly Nanda Al Fattah, Didi Danukusumo, Sarini Abdullah, Ivan Sini

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1 Citation (Scopus)


Objective: To develop a Bayesian survival-time model for the prediction of pre-eclampsia (PE) at the first trimester using a combination of established biomarkers including maternal characteristics and history, mean arterial pressure (MAP), uterine artery Doppler pulsatility index (UtA-PI), and Placental Growth Factor (PlGF)) with an ophthalmic artery Doppler peak ratio (PR) analysis. Methods: The receiving operator curve (ROC) analysis was used to determine the area under the curve (AUC), detection rate (DR), and positive screening cut-off value of the model in predicting the occurrence of early-onset PE (< 34 weeks’ gestation) and preterm PE (< 37 weeks’ gestation). Results: Of the 946 eligible participants, 71 (7.49%) subjects were affected by PE. The incidences of early-onset and preterm PE were 1% and 2.2%, respectively. At a 10% false-positive rate, using the high-risk cut-off 1:49, with AUC 0.981 and 95%CI 0.965–0.998, this model had an 100% of DR in predicting early-onset PE. The DR of this model in predicting preterm PE is 71% when using 1:13 as the cut-off, with AUC 0.919 and 95%CI 0.875–0.963. Conclusion: Combination ophthalmic artery Doppler PR with the previously established biomarkers could improve the accuracy of early and preterm PE prediction at the first trimester screening.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)155-162
Number of pages8
JournalJournal of Ultrasound
Issue number1
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 2022


  • Bayesian
  • Ophthalmic artery
  • Pre-eclampsia
  • Survival model


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