Network Traffic Prediction of Mobile Backhaul Capacity Using Time Series Forecasting

Giovanni Abel Christian, Ihsan Pandu Wijaya, Riri Fitri Sari

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

Telecommunication tower company provides Mobile Backhaul service to provide end to end solution from base station to customer's core network. This case study is conducted in one of the telecommunication tower company and mobile backhaul services provider that provides fiber optic connections as physical interfaces and ethernet transport equipment to serve the customer. Customer use leased line capacity mechanism to provide their requirement on mobile backhaul connectivity. The bandwidth capacity may encounter an increase in daily or monthly usage, which requires the customer to upgrade their maximum capacity. As a service provider, PT Tower Bersama wish to predict the customer bandwidth utilization to discern when the customer needs to upgrade their mobile backhaul leased line capacity. The network traffic is modeled as a time series data. Fractionally Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (FARIMA) model and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model are used to forecast the future network traffic. In terms of error FARIMA (4,0.2,1) model shows the least error with RMSE, MAE and MAPE are 11.762, 9.329 and 11.950 respectively. However, ANN-MLP model prediction result shows more similar pattern with the existing traffic with a slight difference in error with FARIMA model. The prediction model then applied to the interactive dashboard to determine client's upgrade based on the forecasted traffic data.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings - 2021 International Seminar on Intelligent Technology and Its Application
Subtitle of host publicationIntelligent Systems for the New Normal Era, ISITIA 2021
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages58-62
Number of pages5
ISBN (Electronic)9781665428477
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 21 Jul 2021
Event2021 International Seminar on Intelligent Technology and Its Application, ISITIA 2021 - Virtual, Online
Duration: 21 Jul 202122 Jul 2021

Publication series

NameProceedings - 2021 International Seminar on Intelligent Technology and Its Application: Intelligent Systems for the New Normal Era, ISITIA 2021

Conference

Conference2021 International Seminar on Intelligent Technology and Its Application, ISITIA 2021
CityVirtual, Online
Period21/07/2122/07/21

Keywords

  • ANN
  • FARIMA
  • forecasting
  • MLP
  • Mobile Backhaul
  • time series

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