Modelling land use/cover changes with markov-cellular automata in Komering Watershed, South Sumatera

This research has a purpose to study and develop a model that can representing and simulating spatial distribution pattern of land use change in Komering watershed. The Komering watershed is one of nine sub Musi river basin and is located in the southern part of Sumatra island that has an area of 8060,62 km². Land use change simulations, achieved through Markov-cellular automata (CA) methodologies. Slope, elevation, distance from road, distance from river, distance from capital sub-district, distance from settlement area area were driving factors that used in this research. Land use prediction result in 2030 also shows decrease of forest acreage up to -3.37%, agricultural land decreased up to -2.13%, and open land decreased up to -0.13%. On the other hand settlement area increased up to 0.07%, and plantation land increased up to 5.56%. Based on the predictive result, land use unconformity percentage to RTRW in Komering watershed is 18.62 % and land use conformity is 58.27%. Based on the results of the scenario, where forest in protected areas and agriculture land are maintained, shows increase the land use conformity amounted to 60.41 % and reduce unconformity that occur in Komering watershed to 17.23 %.