Model Spasial Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan dan Pengaruhnya terhadap Kebijakan Swasembada Padi

Dede Amrillah, Eko Kusratmoko, Supriatna

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Changes in land cover and land use in Kalitidu District, Bojonegoro Regency are significant, especially for paddy land use. A region is said to be self-sufficient in rice if its rice production is greater than its rice consumption rate. In this research, spatial modeling using Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and markov chain method is applied in Land Change Modeler (LCM) method in Idrisi software. In spatial modeling used road variables as a driving factor the change of land use in 2025. The results obtained from spatial modeling is the size of paddy field area in 2025 with the number 4644.99 hectares with an accuracy of 56.51%. Then the value is multiplied by the rate of rice productivity in 2015 and the conversion rate of dry milled grain (GKG) produces rice production value in 2025 of 95705.37 tons. The consumption rate of rice in 2025 amounted to 4648,402 tons was obtained by multiplying the number of population in the year 2025 which has the number 52515 people with the average rate per capita consumption per year which is at 88.52 kg. Thus Kalitidu District in 2025 is capable of self-sufficient rice.
Original languageIndonesian
Pages (from-to)33-39
JournalMajalah Geografi Indonesia
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2018


  • rantai markov
  • pemodelan spasial
  • land change modeler
  • penggunaan lahan
  • multi-layer preceptron

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