Land Use/Land Cover Simulation Scenarios in Bogor and Karawang Regencies’ Border Area, Indonesia, Using GIS-based Multi-stakeholder Tourism Analysis

Border area development in Indonesia is difficult to oversee because most of the border area is located far away from government centers, therefore the study of land use/ land cover (LULC) change in border area is vital to the goal of analyzing a suitable policy for development control, and preventing the environmental problems. This study describes predicted LULC scenarios for 2030 in Bogor and Karawang Regencies’ border area based on multi-stakeholder perceptions. Notably, this border area is home to a popular tourist location, Green Canyon Waterfall (GCW). The tourism stakeholder analysis identifies three groups: key players (KP), content setter (CS), and subject (S). Actors representing each stakeholder group were surveyed and interviewed to gather their preferences regarding favorable spatial criteria to determine LULC in 2030. There are nine spatial criteria: altitude (A), water conservation zone (WCZ), water bodies buffer zone (WBBZ), landslide potential disaster zone (LPDZ), distance to border (DB), distance to road (DR), distance to mosque (DM), distance to tourism facilities (DT), and distance to government centers (DG). For each stakeholder group, actors’ preferences were input into the Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis (MAMCA) software. Raster cells containing a suitability index of 0.8 – 1 was reclassified as 1 and replaced with predicted LULC 2030 scenarios from CA-Markov to generate suitable cells for LULC changes. Layer integration between raster cells suitable for change and unsuitable for change resulted in three scenario maps. When superimposed with spatial master plan regulation (SMPR) map, the KP group shows a 73.67% area percentage match, while the S group and CS group reflect a 72.45% match and 72.14% match, respectively. Evaluation of model performance using AUC and ROC curves shows that predicted LULC 2030 based on the S group has the highest AUC with 0.980, followed by the CS group (AUC = 0.974) and KP group (AUC = 0.890).