TY - JOUR
T1 - Investigating the impact of social awareness and rapid test on a covid-19 transmission model
AU - Balya, Muhammad Afief
AU - Dewi, Bunga Oktaviani
AU - Lestari, Faza Indah
AU - Ratu, Gayatri
AU - Rosuliyana, Hanna
AU - Windyhani, Tama
AU - Fadhlia, Zawir Rifqa
AU - Samiadji, Brenda M.
AU - Aldila, Dipo
AU - Khoshnaw, Sarbaz H.A.
AU - Shahzad, Muhammad
N1 - Funding Information:
DA is funded by Universitas Indonesia with PUTI KI Q2 research grant scheme 2020, ID No : NKB-775/UN2.RST/HKP.05.00/2020.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Published by Indonesian Biomathematical Society,.
PY - 2021/5/7
Y1 - 2021/5/7
N2 - In this article, we propose and analyze a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission among a closed population, with social awareness and rapid test intervention as the control variables. For this, we have constructed the model using a compartmental system of the ordinary differential equations. Dynamical analysis regarding the existence and local stability of equilibrium points is conducted rigorously. Our analysis shows that COVID-19 will disappear from the population if the basic reproduction number is less than one, and persist if the basic reproduction number is greater than one. In addition, we have shown a trans-critical bifurcation phenomenon based on our proposed model when the basic reproduction number equals one. From the elasticity analysis, we have observed that rapid testing is more promising in reducing the basic reproduction number as compared to a media campaign to improve social awareness on COVID-19. Using the Pontryagin Maximum Principle (PMP), the characterization of our optimal control problem is derived analytically and solved numerically using the forward-backward iterative algorithm. Our cost-effectiveness analysis shows that using rapid test and media campaigns partially are the best intervention strategy to reduce the number of infected humans with the minimum cost of intervention. If the intervention is to be implemented as a single intervention, then using solely the rapid test is a more promising and low-cost option in reducing the number of infected individuals vis-a-vis a media campaign to increase social awareness as a single intervention.
AB - In this article, we propose and analyze a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission among a closed population, with social awareness and rapid test intervention as the control variables. For this, we have constructed the model using a compartmental system of the ordinary differential equations. Dynamical analysis regarding the existence and local stability of equilibrium points is conducted rigorously. Our analysis shows that COVID-19 will disappear from the population if the basic reproduction number is less than one, and persist if the basic reproduction number is greater than one. In addition, we have shown a trans-critical bifurcation phenomenon based on our proposed model when the basic reproduction number equals one. From the elasticity analysis, we have observed that rapid testing is more promising in reducing the basic reproduction number as compared to a media campaign to improve social awareness on COVID-19. Using the Pontryagin Maximum Principle (PMP), the characterization of our optimal control problem is derived analytically and solved numerically using the forward-backward iterative algorithm. Our cost-effectiveness analysis shows that using rapid test and media campaigns partially are the best intervention strategy to reduce the number of infected humans with the minimum cost of intervention. If the intervention is to be implemented as a single intervention, then using solely the rapid test is a more promising and low-cost option in reducing the number of infected individuals vis-a-vis a media campaign to increase social awareness as a single intervention.
KW - Basic reproduction number
KW - Cost-effectiveness analysis
KW - COVID-19
KW - Optimal control
KW - Rapid test
KW - Social awareness
KW - Transcritical bifurcation
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85121209255&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.5614/cbms.2021.4.1.5
DO - 10.5614/cbms.2021.4.1.5
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85121209255
SN - 2549-2896
VL - 4
SP - 46
EP - 64
JO - Communication in Biomathematical Sciences
JF - Communication in Biomathematical Sciences
IS - 1
ER -