Indonesian dengue burden estimates: Review of evidence by an expert panel

Tri Yunis Miko Wayhono, J. Nealon, S. Beucher, A. Prayitno, A. Moureau, S. Nawawi, Hasbullah Thabrany, Mardiati Nadjib

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

22 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Routine, passive surveillance systems tend to underestimate the burden of communicable diseases such as dengue. When empirical methods are unavailable, complimentary opinion-based or extrapolative methods have been employed. Here, an expert Delphi panel estimated the proportion of dengue captured by the Indonesian surveillance system, and associated health system parameters. Following presentation of medical and epidemiological data and subsequent discussions, the panel made iterative estimates from which expansion factors (EF), the ratio of total:reported cases, were calculated. Panelists estimated that of all symptomatic Indonesian dengue episodes, 57.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 46.6-59.8) enter healthcare facilities to seek treatment; 39.3% (95% CI 32.8-42.0) are diagnosed as dengue; and 20.3% (95% CI 16.1-24.3) are subsequently reported in the surveillance system. They estimated most hospitalizations occur in the public sector, while ∼55% of ambulatory episodes are seen privately. These estimates gave an overall EF of 5.00; hospitalized EF of 1.66; and ambulatory EF of 34.01 which, when combined with passive surveillance data, equates to an annual average (2006-2015) of 612 005 dengue cases, and 183 297 hospitalizations. These estimates are lower than those published elsewhere, perhaps due to case definitions, local clinical perceptions and treatment-seeking behavior. These findings complement global burden estimates, support health economic analyses, and can be used to inform decision-making.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2324-2329
Number of pages6
JournalEpidemiology and Infection
Volume145
Issue number11
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Aug 2017

Keywords

  • Delphi
  • Epidemiology
  • Indonesia
  • dengue
  • under-reporting

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