Incidence and severity prediction score of COVID-19 in people living with HIV (SCOVHIV): experience from the first and second waves of the pandemic in Indonesia

Evy Yunihastuti, Teguh Harjono Karjadi, Alvina Widhani, Haridana Indah Setiawati Mahdi, Salma Sundari, Aljira Fitya Hapsari, Sukamto Koesnoe, Samsuridjal Djauzi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Background: People living with HIV (PLHIV) have higher risk of COVID-19 infection and mortality due to COVID-19. Health professionals should be able to assess PLHIV who are more likely to develop severe COVID-19 and provide appropriate medical treatment. This study aimed to assess clinical factors associated with COVID-19 severity and developed a scoring system to predict severe COVID-19 infection among PLHIV. Methods: This retrospective cohort study evaluated PLHIV at four hospitals diagnosed with COVID-19 during the first and second wave COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia. The independent risk factors related to the severity of COVID-19 were identified with multivariate logistic regression. Results: 342 PLHIV were diagnosed with COVID-19, including 23 with severe-critical diseases. The cumulative incidence up to December 2021 was 0.083 (95% CI 0.074–0.092). Twenty-three patients developed severe-critical COVID-19, and the mortality rate was 3.2% (95% CI 1.61%–5.76%). Having any comorbidity, CD4 count of < 200 cells/mm3, not being on ART, and active opportunistic infection were independent risk factors for developing severe COVID-19. SCOVHIV score was formulated to predict severity, with 1 point for each item. A minimum score of 3 indicated a 58.4% probability of progressing to severe COVID-19. This scoring system had a good discrimination ability with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.856 (95% CI 0.775–0.936). Conclusion: SCOVHIV score, a four-point scoring system, had good accuracy in predicting COVID-19 severity in PLHIV.

Original languageEnglish
Article number47
JournalAIDS Research and Therapy
Volume19
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2022

Keywords

  • COVID-19
  • HIV
  • Incidence
  • Indonesia
  • Severity prediction score

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