Implementation of Time Series Forecasting Using Single Moving Average Model-A Case Study in Printing Industry

Nadia Cahyani Gandesrukma, Beryl Putra Sanjaya, Alfina Damayanti, Rahmat Nurcahyo

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

The first step in optimizing the overall planning process is to develop a reliable forecasting process. In this paper we discuss the implementation of forecasting in the printing industry, forecasting the timing of demands is one of the critical issues. Time series is a collection of observations made at regular time intervals and its analysis refers to problems in correlations among successive observations. A Simple Moving Average model is a time series constructed by taking averages of several sequential values of another time series. To support the research, data collection from the firm is needed. In order to find the best model, the research will be supported by graphic visualization, analysis, and the accuracy of the Single Moving Average model for demand forecasting with data obtained from the firm over the course of 1-2 years. The demand products are provided by CV. Mitrakom Bintang Kemilau firm. In this paper we calculated 3 different data, two of the three are based on the types of product which have the most sales percentage within 2 years of production, shelf talker and wobbler, the other is total products produced by the firm. Based on the three types of data we gathered two years in advance, we found evidence that forecasting data using the Single Moving Averages model results in 30%-50% errors using the error standard of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) supported by Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Squared Error (MSE).

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings - 2021 IEOM India Conference
EditorsShekar Babu, Devdas Shetty, V. Vasu, R.R.K. Sharma, Ahad Ali
PublisherIEOM Society
Pages313-323
Number of pages11
ISBN (Print)9781792361289
Publication statusPublished - 2021
Event1st Indian International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, IEOM 2021 - Virtual, Online
Duration: 16 Aug 202118 Aug 2021

Publication series

NameProceedings of the International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management
ISSN (Electronic)2169-8767

Conference

Conference1st Indian International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, IEOM 2021
CityVirtual, Online
Period16/08/2118/08/21

Keywords

  • Accuracy
  • Forecasting
  • MAPE
  • Printing industry
  • Single moving average

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