TY - JOUR
T1 - Forecasting the Number of Vehicles in Indonesia Using Auto Regressive Integrative Moving Average (ARIMA) Method
AU - Irhami, Elmir Arif
AU - Farizal, F.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.
PY - 2021/3/23
Y1 - 2021/3/23
N2 - The number of vehicles in Indonesia increases significantly from year to year. This has an impact on various aspects such as traffic jams, air pollution, traffic accidents etc. The purpose of this study is to obtain the best model for forecast the number of cars and the number of motorcycles in the next 11 years. For the purpose, ARIMA method was used. Using the historical data of the number of cars and the number of motorcycles from 2001 to 2019, the best model for forecasting the number of cars and the number of motorcycles is ARIMA (1,1,0) and ARIMA (2,1,2), respectively. The models have MAPE of 7.01% and 7.24% for cars and motorcycles, respectively.
AB - The number of vehicles in Indonesia increases significantly from year to year. This has an impact on various aspects such as traffic jams, air pollution, traffic accidents etc. The purpose of this study is to obtain the best model for forecast the number of cars and the number of motorcycles in the next 11 years. For the purpose, ARIMA method was used. Using the historical data of the number of cars and the number of motorcycles from 2001 to 2019, the best model for forecasting the number of cars and the number of motorcycles is ARIMA (1,1,0) and ARIMA (2,1,2), respectively. The models have MAPE of 7.01% and 7.24% for cars and motorcycles, respectively.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85103482119&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1088/1742-6596/1845/1/012024
DO - 10.1088/1742-6596/1845/1/012024
M3 - Conference article
AN - SCOPUS:85103482119
SN - 1742-6588
VL - 1845
JO - Journal of Physics: Conference Series
JF - Journal of Physics: Conference Series
IS - 1
M1 - 012024
T2 - 1st International Conference on Industrial Automation, Smart Grid and its Application, ICIASGA 2020
Y2 - 4 November 2020 through 5 November 2020
ER -