Forecasting Indonesian mortality rates using the Lee-Carter model and ARIMA method

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

If information about the mortality rate for some future periods can be obtained in the present time then the financial planning and policy to be taken are expected to be better and directed. The model used to calculate the mortality rate in this paper is the Lee-Carter model. There are three parameters of the model, that is ax, bx and kt. Parameter ax will be estimate using average log mortality while bx and kt will be estimate using Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) method. Then the future mortality rates will be forecast with the use of the ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) method. Meanwhile, the whole process in this study will be implemented using software R. The final results of the forecasting will be presented in tabular and graphical form. The process show good results of forecasting mortality rate for several years or period based on the pattern and error less than 0.3 %.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 3rd International Symposium on Current Progress in Mathematics and Sciences 2017, ISCPMS 2017
EditorsRatna Yuniati, Terry Mart, Ivandini T. Anggraningrum, Djoko Triyono, Kiki A. Sugeng
PublisherAmerican Institute of Physics Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9780735417410
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 22 Oct 2018
Event3rd International Symposium on Current Progress in Mathematics and Sciences 2017, ISCPMS 2017 - Bali, Indonesia
Duration: 26 Jul 201727 Jul 2017

Publication series

NameAIP Conference Proceedings
Volume2023
ISSN (Print)0094-243X
ISSN (Electronic)1551-7616

Conference

Conference3rd International Symposium on Current Progress in Mathematics and Sciences 2017, ISCPMS 2017
CountryIndonesia
CityBali
Period26/07/1727/07/17

Keywords

  • ANFIS method
  • Lee Carter Model
  • mortality rates

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