Forecasting Indonesian mortality rates using by Lee-Carter model and Regression Linear model

N. P. Aji, S. Mardiyati, M. Malik

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

Premium price in life insurance is determined by the mortality rate of the country concerned. In this research, we construct Indonesia mortality table using the Lee-Carter model and parameters in the model are estimated by Least Square method and Newton Raphson method. After that, the parameter that depends on time will be forecasted by Linear Regression model. The accuracy of estimated the value of parameters is the most important and it can be measure with MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error), with using Least Square method and Newton Raphson method have the smallest MAPE value for all age is not more than 10%. Thus, those method can be used. Forecasting Indonesia mortality table using Linear Regression model can be done because all classical assumptions in Linear Regression model are ful-filled and it has MAPE value is 11.97%. The final result of this research is Indonesia mortality table for some future periods.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 4th International Symposium on Current Progress in Mathematics and Sciences, ISCPMS 2018
EditorsTerry Mart, Djoko Triyono, Ivandini T. Anggraningrum
PublisherAmerican Institute of Physics Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9780735419155
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 4 Nov 2019
Event4th International Symposium on Current Progress in Mathematics and Sciences 2018, ISCPMS 2018 - Depok, Indonesia
Duration: 30 Oct 201831 Oct 2018

Publication series

NameAIP Conference Proceedings
Volume2168
ISSN (Print)0094-243X
ISSN (Electronic)1551-7616

Conference

Conference4th International Symposium on Current Progress in Mathematics and Sciences 2018, ISCPMS 2018
Country/TerritoryIndonesia
CityDepok
Period30/10/1831/10/18

Keywords

  • Lee-Carter model
  • linear regresision model
  • MAPE

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