TY - JOUR
T1 - Forecasting demand on mega infrastructure projects
T2 - Increasing financial feasibility
AU - Husin, Albert Eddy
AU - Berawi, Mohammed Ali
AU - Dikun, Suyono
AU - Ilyas, Tommy
AU - Berawi, Abdur Rohim Boy
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© IJTech 2015.
PY - 2015
Y1 - 2015
N2 - Indonesia is a country with large and dynamic economic activities reflected by an average economic growth reaching 6% per annum. Sunda Street Bridge (SSB) is one of the mega projects offered by the Indonesia government that would spend about US$ 25 billion. In line with the SSB main function as an efficient mean for transporting people and goods between two major islands in Indonesia, potential additional functions have been explored including installation of liquid and gas pipes, fiber optics, industrial area development and renewable energy utilization. This research establishes the approach to forecast demand in the case of conceptual design. The SSB is associated with innovations to determine the functions using value engineering methods. The approach involves forecasting demand with a System Dynamics simulation model that could provide a reliable estimate and generate scenarios to compare the financial feasibility of the project before and after the process involving innovation of project functions. Analysis involving demand forecasting with the System Dynamics Approach has confirmed that the Sunda Strait Bridge development with additional functions would increase the revenues of the overall project up to US$61.59 Million, in order to obtain an increased Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of the overall project up to 7.56% with a positive Net Present Value (NPV).
AB - Indonesia is a country with large and dynamic economic activities reflected by an average economic growth reaching 6% per annum. Sunda Street Bridge (SSB) is one of the mega projects offered by the Indonesia government that would spend about US$ 25 billion. In line with the SSB main function as an efficient mean for transporting people and goods between two major islands in Indonesia, potential additional functions have been explored including installation of liquid and gas pipes, fiber optics, industrial area development and renewable energy utilization. This research establishes the approach to forecast demand in the case of conceptual design. The SSB is associated with innovations to determine the functions using value engineering methods. The approach involves forecasting demand with a System Dynamics simulation model that could provide a reliable estimate and generate scenarios to compare the financial feasibility of the project before and after the process involving innovation of project functions. Analysis involving demand forecasting with the System Dynamics Approach has confirmed that the Sunda Strait Bridge development with additional functions would increase the revenues of the overall project up to US$61.59 Million, in order to obtain an increased Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of the overall project up to 7.56% with a positive Net Present Value (NPV).
KW - Demand forecast
KW - Financial feasibility
KW - Innovation
KW - Mega infrastructure project
KW - System dynamics
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84921712935&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.14716/ijtech.v6i1.782
DO - 10.14716/ijtech.v6i1.782
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84921712935
SN - 2086-9614
VL - 6
SP - 73
EP - 83
JO - International Journal of Technology
JF - International Journal of Technology
IS - 1
ER -