TY - JOUR
T1 - Flood Vulnerability Evaluation and Prediction Using Multi-temporal Data
T2 - A Case in Tangerang, Indonesia
AU - Santosa, Budi Heru
AU - Martono, Dwi Nowo
AU - Purwana, Rachmadhi
AU - Koestoer, Raldi Hendro
N1 - Funding Information:
ACKNOWLEDGMENT This research and the article's publication were funded by the Grant PUTI Doktor 2020 from the Directorate of Research and Community Service, the University of Indonesia [grant number: NKB-746/UN2.RST/HKP.05.00/2020]. This research program was also supported by the Saintek-Scholarship program, The National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, International Journal on Advanced Science, Engineering and Information Technology. All Rights Reserved.
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - Land-use change has an impact on growing physical flood vulnerability. Geographic Information System (GIS) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) approaches are increasingly being used for flood vulnerability assessments. However, none has used timeseries land cover data for evaluation and rainfall over various return periods for prediction simultaneously, especially in Indonesia. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate and predict physical flood vulnerability using time-series land cover data and rainfall data over various return periods. Eight criteria were considered in the assessment: elevation, topographic wetness index, slope, distance to the river, distance downstream, soil type, rainfall, and land cover. The criteria weights were determined using the AHP method based on expert judgment. The multi-criteria model was built and validated using flood inundation data. Based on the validated model, the effect of land cover changes on flood vulnerability was evaluated. The flood vulnerability changes were also predicted based on rainfall over various return periods. The evaluation and prediction models have shown reliable findings. The criterion elevation and distance to the river significantly influenced the physical flood vulnerability by 41% and 20%. The evaluation model showed a strong correlation between the built-up area and the area with high flood vulnerability (r2 = 0.96). Furthermore, the model predicted an inundation area expansion for rainfall over various return periods. Further research using spatial data with higher resolution and more advanced validation techniques is needed to improve the model accuracy.
AB - Land-use change has an impact on growing physical flood vulnerability. Geographic Information System (GIS) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) approaches are increasingly being used for flood vulnerability assessments. However, none has used timeseries land cover data for evaluation and rainfall over various return periods for prediction simultaneously, especially in Indonesia. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate and predict physical flood vulnerability using time-series land cover data and rainfall data over various return periods. Eight criteria were considered in the assessment: elevation, topographic wetness index, slope, distance to the river, distance downstream, soil type, rainfall, and land cover. The criteria weights were determined using the AHP method based on expert judgment. The multi-criteria model was built and validated using flood inundation data. Based on the validated model, the effect of land cover changes on flood vulnerability was evaluated. The flood vulnerability changes were also predicted based on rainfall over various return periods. The evaluation and prediction models have shown reliable findings. The criterion elevation and distance to the river significantly influenced the physical flood vulnerability by 41% and 20%. The evaluation model showed a strong correlation between the built-up area and the area with high flood vulnerability (r2 = 0.96). Furthermore, the model predicted an inundation area expansion for rainfall over various return periods. Further research using spatial data with higher resolution and more advanced validation techniques is needed to improve the model accuracy.
KW - Flood inundation
KW - Flood vulnerability
KW - Gis
KW - Multi-criteria
KW - Weighted overlay
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85143853039&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.18517/ijaseit.12.6.16903
DO - 10.18517/ijaseit.12.6.16903
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85143853039
SN - 2088-5334
VL - 12
SP - 2156
EP - 2164
JO - International Journal on Advanced Science, Engineering and Information Technology
JF - International Journal on Advanced Science, Engineering and Information Technology
IS - 6
ER -