Feasibility and advance scenario analysis of toll road company with low rate of return on investment in Indonesia: case study of the Manado-Bitung toll road

Infrastructure development in developing countries can have a transformative impact on people's lives. Maintaining the speed of infrastructure development in developed countries is one way to maintain economic growth. To maintain development, different types of Government support can attract more investment from business entities to be interested in a Public Private Partnership (PPP) investment, such as the Viability Gap Fund (VGF). Amongst many, Manado-Bitung toll road is one example that has received VGF. In connection with the above matters, it is necessary to conduct an analysis on the feasibility of the sustainability of this toll road and also sensitivity to other factors that may affect the level of investment feasibility. The analysis will be done by gathering historical secondary data, that is used to compare the financial feasibility of the toll road between the existing and the Concession Agreement, a sensitivity study using investment parameters, and scenario analysis according to the results to measure future feasibility using combinations. Conclusions and inputs will then be recommended for usage of the stakeholders of Manado-Bitung toll road.