FCTC Ratification, Smoking Prevalence and GDP per Capita : Lesson Learn for Indonesia

Research output: Working paperPreprint


Background: The stagnated tobacco control progress in Indonesia needs to be accelerated through a more comprehensive implementation of Framework Convention of Tobacco Control (FCTC) measurement. Nevertheless, the tobacco industry argument concerning the negative economic impacts of tobacco control still hinders the government to ratify or even sign the FCTC, which has been ratified by more than 180 countries. This study aims to bring the empirical evidence on the tobacco industry argument concerning FCTC. This study applied two stage least square estimation strategy to unbalanced panel data at country level. On the first stage we estimate the impact FCTC ratification on smoking activity, and on the second step, estimating the influence of smoking activities on macroeconomic performance.

: The result of this study shows that FCTC ratification is negatively related to a country’s smoking prevalence, in which the ratifying party of FCTC has lower smoking prevalence. Moreover, country who ratifies FCTC longer is also associated with lower smoking prevalence. Whereas FCTC ratification is beneficial in reducing smoking prevalence, the declining smoking prevalence is not related to the decline in GDP per capita.

The result of this study shows the decrease in smoking prevalence has nothing to do with the macroeconomic indicator. Hence, FCTC ratification, which is an important driver for tobacco control actions acceleration, should not be seen as a backfire to the economy. Instead, FCTC ratification could be mutually beneficial for the health and economic aspects as it provides comprehensive guidance and protocols by taking into account the well-being states of both aspects.
Original languageEnglish
Publication statusPublished - 5 Apr 2021


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