Exploratory analysis of the relationship between livelihood disruptions and displacement intentions following a volcanic eruption: A case from the 2014 Mt. Kelud eruption

The current study explores the possible relationship between livelihood disruptions and displacement intentions in the short and long term, following a volcanic eruption. Previous studies in a similar context suggest that livestock breeding and farming remain important to the affected population in terms of livelihood maintenance, even when eruptions severely interrupt these activities. Other research findings suggest people consider eruptions opportunities to improve income through increased crop cultivations. Previous studies have concluded that people prefer to return to agricultural and farming activities, even if eruptions significantly disturb them. Little research, however, quantitatively addresses the impact of eruptions on income or explores the relationship between livelihood disruption and relocation intention. To understand this relationship, we conducted a questionnaire survey of villagers in the Kediri and Blitar districts of Indonesia who received an evacuation order during the 2014 Mt. Kelud eruption. We collected and analyzed the data from 440 valid responses. One of our major findings supports earlier research findings vis-à-vis the association between agricultural losses and villagers’ decisions to relocate in the long term. Our data suggest that villagers with no relocation intention had experienced larger agricultural losses, thus suggesting that agricultural losses do not constitute a large factor affecting relocation intention. Likewise, we found there to be no statistically significant relationship between livestock damages/losses and displacement intentions. These findings suggest the importance of further research into causal relationships among economic loss, farming damages and losses, and displacement intentions.