@article{fabb0e3ae761472d92dcf76ffec00ad1,
title = "Effects of Climate change on temperature and precipitation in the Lake Toba region, Indonesia, based on ERA5-land data with quantile mapping bias correction",
abstract = "Climate change is a serious problem that can cause global variations in temperature and rainfall patterns. This global variation can affect the water availability of lakes. In this study, trends in temperature and rainfall in the Lake Toba area for 40 years (1981–2020) were analyzed using ERA5-Land data corrected with observation station data utilizing the quantile mapping bias correction method. Corrected ERA5-Land data were used in this study to show spatial patterns and trends. The Mann–Kendall and Sen slope tests were carried out to see the magnitude of the trend. A comparison of temperature and rainfall against their baseline period (1951–1980) was also investigated. The results of this study show that climate change has affected the trend of increasing temperature and rainfall in the Lake Toba area, with an increase in temperature of 0.006 °C per year and an average rainfall of 0.71 mm per year. In general, significant changes in the increase of temperature and rainfall occurred in the last decade, with an increase in temperature of 0.24 °C and rainfall of 22%. The study of the impact of climate change expected to be useful for policymakers in managing water resources in the Lake Toba area.",
author = "Hendri Irwandi and Rosid, {Mohammad Syamsu} and Terry Mart",
note = "Funding Information: We thank the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) for supporting the Doctoral scholarship and providing the data used in this research. Thank you to the University of Indonesia for the 2022 PUTI Postgraduate grant, and the Asahan Barumun Watershed and Protected Forest Management Center (BPDASHL) for important data on the Lake Toba catchment area, and thanks also to Arief Wibowo Suryo (BRIN), Muhammad Khoirun Najib (IPB University) and Muhamad Syirojudin (BMKG) for their valuable discussions. Funding Information: This research was funded by the Universitas Indonesia through the PUTI Pascasarjana 2022 grant (No. NKB-281/UN2.RST/HKP.05.00/2022). The work of TM was supported by the PUTI Q2 grant (No. NKB-663/UN2.RST/HKP.05.00/2022). Funding Information: We thank the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) for supporting the Doctoral scholarship and providing the data used in this research. Thank you to the University of Indonesia for the 2022 PUTI Postgraduate grant, and the Asahan Barumun Watershed and Protected Forest Management Center (BPDASHL) for important data on the Lake Toba catchment area, and thanks also to Arief Wibowo Suryo (BRIN), Muhammad Khoirun Najib (IPB University) and Muhamad Syirojudin (BMKG) for their valuable discussions. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023, The Author(s).",
year = "2023",
month = dec,
doi = "10.1038/s41598-023-29592-y",
language = "English",
volume = "13",
journal = "Scientific Reports",
issn = "2045-2322",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",
number = "1",
}
