Dynamic System Model of Land Use Affected by Sea Level Rise in the Coastal Area of Bengkulu City, Indonesia

Bengkulu City is the capital of Bengkulu Province, a coastal area with a coastline of ± 17.22 km. Sea level rise (sea level rise) will reduce coastal areas' function and cause flooding in coastal regions, erosion on sandy beaches, and damage to infrastructure near the coast. This research was conducted to provide a dynamic description of the inundation distribution due to various sea-level rise scenarios. This high population growth increases the need for space and land, impacting the decreasing carrying capacity. It is necessary to predict the availability of land; the area is built using a dynamic system model. The analysis of tidal data from the Pulau Baai Tidal Station for ten years of observation (2009-2018) shows a trend of sea-level rise in the coastal waters of Bengkulu City, which is around 0.82 cm/year. The development of developed land was observed through a dynamic system model of the relationship between population growth and land availability in 2008-2300. The prediction results of the model show that the affected area of land use in areas prone to sea-level rise has a directly proportional relationship to the year of land use development. It is inversely proportional to the availability of land; as the number of years and land use increases, the availability of land will decrease.