Dynamic simulation on volcanic sediment transport

Sediments of volcanic eruption are useful for structural materials such as buildings and roads. Mining of such materials is becoming illegal and to some extent may destroy the environment. In the peripheries of many active volcanoes pockets are to be constructed for mitigation during the eruption, and for exploitation at a later time for some commercial activities. Issues on the balance of such mitigation and exploitation are to be simulated in a dynamic manner to analyze inflow and outflow of the volcanic materials. The optimal size pocket, called sabo, is to be determined by such analyses for efficiency of construction as well as effectiveness of the mitigation itself. The rate of inflow materials is predicted in the light of available historical data, and in a similar approach the recorded exploitation activities are used to determine the rate of outflow. A dynamic model is then simply developed in terms of progressive time, with the state of the dynamic represented by the difference of increment rates between inflow and outflow. Computation experience is also used to evaluate the performance of the developed model based the real historical data of Merapi Mt. of Central Java in Indonesia. Results have shown that various scenarios can be run to search for the appropriate optimal size of sabos.