Dengue hemorrhagic fever risk model using a spatial approach in Batam City, Indonesia 2022

Background: Uninhabited shophouses become breeding places for mosquitoes which cause high levels of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), whereas the existence of squatters causes a reduction in green open space, one of which becomes a breeding place for Aedes sp. Methods: This study aimed to develop a DHF risk model in shophouses and squatters in Batam city. This research applied an ecological study design using a spatial approach with the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method. The variables studied were the incidence of dengue fever, vector density, and rainfall. Results: The results of the analysis show that for the vector density in the shophouses, the odds ratio (OR) was 4.71 while for the vector density in squatters, the OR was 6.76. For the rainfall in the shophouses, the OR was 0.83 while for the rainfall in the Squatters, the OR was 1.68. Model analysis shows that the higher shophouses and squatters can cause an increase in dengue cases. Conclusion: Risk analysis shows that factors that can increase DHF vulnerability include high vector density with a risk of 4.71 times (shophouses) and 6.76 times (squatters), and high rainfall in squatters with a risk of 1680 times. The distribution of dengue cases shows that Sambau dan Batu Selicin are subdistricts that have a high distribution of vulnerabilities in both shophouses and squatters. The mathematical model of dengue risk shows that every construction of one shophouse or one squatter can cause an increase in dengue cases by one case.