Constructing risk management for new product development in over-the-counter drug manufacturer

Market of over-the-counter pharmacy industry has been growing during the last 10 years in Indonesia and this situation is predicted to continue. The potential increase of demand is up to 8.5% per year. Manufacturer should keep their initiative action and strategy to develop a new product to stay competitive. New product development project faces different risks that could influence and interrupt completion at planned timeline. This study aims to construct project risk management of new product development in over-the-counter pharmacy industry as a reference to prevent identical failure in concurrent project. This study combines Bayesian Network and Monte Carlo simulation method to construct risk assessment for aggregated risk which impact on the completion target of the project. There are 3 major risks has been identified to be prioritized, which are delay in supplier selection, not qualified implementation process, and long lead time required for importation of materials.