TY - GEN
T1 - Comparison of Double Exponential and Single Exponential Smoothing Accuracy in Krakatau Steel Demand Forecasting Fitted Model
AU - Maretania, Indry
AU - Alfadjri, Muhammad Rummy
AU - Paramesywarie, Pradieqta Uli
AU - Nurcahyo, Rahmat
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© IEOM Society International.
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - Krakatau Steel is one of the manufacturing companies in Indonesia that has been experiencing losses for 9 years with the number of US$112 million in 2018. This research discusses forecasting discourse that many companies face while setting a new optimal strategic plan and aims to compare which method is best to use in terms of predicting krakatau steel demand. Data of accumulative steel products were collected from Krakatau Steel annual report with 14 years of historical data from 2005-2019. Double Exponential Smoothing and Single Exponential Smoothing methods were used to predict the demand in 2019. The accuracy was measured by MAPE, MAD, MSD, and MSE where the single exponential smoothing method is found as the best and more accurate than double exponential smoothing. Further improvements have been done to further examine the coefficient value and MAPE value towards the forecast results, still, Single Exponential Smoothing is the more accurate method.
AB - Krakatau Steel is one of the manufacturing companies in Indonesia that has been experiencing losses for 9 years with the number of US$112 million in 2018. This research discusses forecasting discourse that many companies face while setting a new optimal strategic plan and aims to compare which method is best to use in terms of predicting krakatau steel demand. Data of accumulative steel products were collected from Krakatau Steel annual report with 14 years of historical data from 2005-2019. Double Exponential Smoothing and Single Exponential Smoothing methods were used to predict the demand in 2019. The accuracy was measured by MAPE, MAD, MSD, and MSE where the single exponential smoothing method is found as the best and more accurate than double exponential smoothing. Further improvements have been done to further examine the coefficient value and MAPE value towards the forecast results, still, Single Exponential Smoothing is the more accurate method.
KW - Double Exponential Smoothing
KW - Forecast
KW - Single Exponential Smoothing
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85125930326&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85125930326
SN - 9781792361289
T3 - Proceedings of the International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management
SP - 356
EP - 364
BT - Proceedings - 2021 IEOM India Conference
A2 - Babu, Shekar
A2 - Shetty, Devdas
A2 - Vasu, V.
A2 - Sharma, R.R.K.
A2 - Ali, Ahad
PB - IEOM Society
T2 - 1st Indian International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, IEOM 2021
Y2 - 16 August 2021 through 18 August 2021
ER -