Comparing The Accuracy of Holt’s and Brown’s Double Exponential Smoothing Method in Forecasting The Coal Demand Of Company X

Coal is a fossil fuel that is commonly used throughout the world. Nowadays, the demand for coal is fluctuating because of several factors. These changes and uncertainties on the demand level of coal requires more attention from the companies because they must determine the accurate level of production in a certain period of time. The accuracy in predicting how much is needed and how much is produced will be very necessary, because it helps the company to fulfill the market needs and to retain customer loyalty. In this paper, we estimate the demand for coal production for the next 6 years in Company X using Brown’s and Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Method then determine which method is the most accurate. With Brown's method, the result obtained is that the maximum value of α parameter is 0.4 and the MAPE value is 6.74. On the other hand, with Holt’s method we got the value of MAPE is 5.8157, with alpha 0.5867, and gamma 0.14754. By comparing the two methods, we conclude that Holt’s method is more accurate in predicting the demand level in the next 6 years than Brown’s method, as Holt’s method has a smaller value of forecast error.