CA-Markov Model for Predicting Paddy-Field Land in Babulu Subdistrict, North Penajam Paser Regency, East Kalimantan

Paddy-fields in Indonesia continue to change their function every year as a result of the increase in land for settlements, as well as in North Penajam Paser Regency. The plan to relocate the capital city to North Penajam Paser Regency can support various impacts on land conversion, such as reducing paddy-fields so that paddy-fields productivity can be disrupted and reduce food availability. The purpose of this study to analyze and predict the availability of paddy-fields in 2031 in Babulu Subdistrict, North Penajam Paser Regency, using the CA-Markov method. Changes in paddy-field use were identified using remote sensing. This study's driving factors are the distance from the river, distance from the road, distance from the settlement, slope, and elevation. The results showed that paddy-fields in the Babulu Subdistrict have increased during the period 2009 - 2020. Paddy-fields in 2031 will reach 12.3% of the total area. Paddy-fields have an increased probability in the regions that are high and close to rivers. The model shows that the paddy-fields land in the Babulu Subdistrict has increased in line with the increasing trend of the plantations and settlements area.